How much courage does it take,,,

to criticize Bush on TH?

to call the illegal immigration bill “amnesty”?

to blame the GOP?

to call for the impeachment of Bush?

to agree with the bullies of TH…to add your post to theirs?

to talk about a 3^rd party and politicians that listen to the “base”?

The answer is “not a lot”

Now answer the opposite:

to praise Bush?

to want realistic border control that has a real shot at working?

to support the only party that wants to win the WOT?

to disagree—and keep disagreeing even if the bullies and all their minions gang up on you?

to PROUDLY admit to being a part of, not using the GOP?

For everyone that ever began to express themselves on the blogs by disagreeing with the popular sentiment…you learned really quickly how hard the last 5 is.

For months…day in and day out, the two sisters (Sandra & Sheila) did exactly that…and now

one of those bullies is saying that one of the woman wasn’t “tough” enough to take it because she elected to go elsewhere.

I thought of this man saying something truly unforgivable..."You raised 9/11 against the altar at which all else must bow.  I'm sorry, I don't agree.  Yes, 3000 people were killed, and that's quite a tragedy.  But there are 200 million people in this country and some things are simply bigger than a bunch of Islamic fanatics running around raising some h**l."

I published this quote when this man started to make friends with a vet...the old, "we're on the same side" buddy deal.  Naturally, this vet and a whole bunch of people went balistic with the attempt at the end of the quote to make the WOT inconsequential to everything else (in this case gun rights and border control)...until I revealed who wrote it.

And then this vet and the others got quiet.

No one attacked the man.

No wonder he thinks it’s easy to go against the tide…very few people are willing to do so.

I, of course have, twice...but unlike the sisters…I am not a Conservative nor a Republican. I happen to lean Right and vote GOP because I’m not an idiot; I KNOW which of the two viable parties will fight the WOT and give my issues a hearing. I also make no pretense at being nice; I’m not here to make buddies, and I am very use to standing on principles that are worth dying for—alone.

For me, I lose nothing by disagreeing and angering people. For the nice sisters, I suspect it has been difficult…they seem to genuinely care about the party and the people here at TH.

They are—people of True Grit.

**This is a revision, this blog obviously dislikes Word and I lost and rewrote sections.  Also I'm not mentioning the man by name because I won't promote him, period.  The sisters' blogs are listed in my blog roll under "A word to the wise" and "One eighty".

 

I think this illegal immigration issue has just tanked the GOP’s chances of not only retaking Congress but of keeping the WH. The absolutists on this issue will not even listen to the details of the bill painstakingly put together by some of the strongest conservatives in Congress (Kyl: 97% rating). They want two things…12 million illegals deported NOW and a government project (the wall) constructed BEFORE any discussion of any type of work program. The latter could take decades and will leave the Northern border and both the Pacific and the Atlantic porous. The mom and pop operations, which makes up the core of the GOP party would never agree to the lost of their laborers.

In other words, what the absolutists are demanding is politically and financially unfeasible.

But they will continue on until they destroy the GOP or the GOP detaches themselves from them.

The 2008 election, I fear is lost…unless, Iran gets the bomb and takes out Israel and then threatens us…or there is another 9/11.

Then the public will look toward Rudy.

But to get there, Rudy STILL has to get past the GOP…and their Christian Pro-lifers…the NRA…and the Pro-Marriage groups.

I believe that while the absolutists on illegal immigration may be vocal; they do not represent the core of the GOP…they do not match the numbers of the above 3 groups because unlike those groups, they do not consist of people that cross party ideology lines.

The VP that runs with Rudy has to appease the three groups.

Palin is reportedly strongly pro-life, a lifelong member of NRA, and pro-marriage…she can bring “family values” to the GOP ticket…but so can Huckabee and Hunter and just about anyone now running for President who would agree to play second fiddle and wait for their turn (leave out McCain, who is too old to wait 8 years).

Palin is a total unknown outside of Alaska…we don’t even need her state’s electoral votes. She has had very little experience and has not been tested; in fact she became governor for the same reason that Reagan and Arnold won…she was running against people who had so angered the voters; Bugs Bunny could have triumphed.

Yet there is talk about running Palin on the GOP ticket. At first, when Steve from “Campaign2008Victory” first mentioned Sarah Palin, less than a year governor of Alaska, I thought who? I agreed to read up on the woman…and my initial reaction was…no way…for the above reasons.

And then I started to consider what she could bring to the table that Hunter, Huckabee and others could not.

Palin is glamorous. This ex-beauty queen / ex-basket ball star / pretty blonde has a 90% approval rating…sure it has something to do with who she replaced, BUT I bet you your next Vegas vacation, that it has a lot to do with the way she looks. And before anyone knocks the importance of Hollywood type glamour…remember we are the nation of American idol where most people can name the winner of 2007 or who Tyler Hicks is and how Carrie Underwood has gone country superstar but not who the Vice President of the United States is or who they voted for in 2002 in their state.

And let us not forget … she is a member of half of the voting population: women, who would like very much to see a female knocking on the most powerful door in the world.

She will, as Fred Thompson has, bring excitement to politics and many will watch her go up against the old timers with the anticipation of a weekly American Idol vote off. She represent the young and the new and something DIFFERENT.

No, I’m not endorsing Palin…but she would make an interesting Queen if the circumstances make the Game Master play the Rudy king.

 

There’s been a linking of the two hot button issues: Abortion and Illegal Immigration lately and while the talk is about not allowing either issue to become so absolute that the Independents are scared off and the Dems end up keeping Congress and gain the WH in 2008, I do believe that there are distinct differences in these two issues and how it will effect the voters.

The numbers:

Immigration affects 4 border states, leaving 46 that give it little more than lip service. At the very most, they represent 30% of the voters compared with the 70% that may be turned off by the seemingly lack of compassion and racist overtone.

Pro-lifers cross party lines. Beyond the 22% on the Right (some are apathetic or out and out pro-abortion), there is a huge Christian base in the Dem and Independent tent. Despite the downplay by the MSM, quite a number of people are anti-abortion. Notice I did not say “pro-life”…they may not be willing to overturn R v W but enough time has passed for most Americans to see the destruction this wanton disregard for life has caused.

The Right may be able to put aside the 30% border control issue absolutists, but it would be the end of the GOP if it turned it’s back on the C/PL group that is credited with giving Reagan and G.W. the presidency, because this voting block consist of MORE than 30% and cuts heavily into the Middle and some of the Dems.

Time:

For near 3 decades, the Christian Pro-lifers have been given promises by the Right to overturn Roe vs. Wade. They have been patient as all get out. As Sandra from “A Word to the Wise” and Steve from “Campaign2008 Victory” has written, other than the partial birth abortion bill that was upheld by the SCOTUS this year, very little has been accomplished.

Yet, the C/PL STILL dutifully vote GOP.

The illegal immigration issue gained importance AFTER the 2004 election even though the problem has been around for nearly as long as the abortion issue. Any effort to consider the opinions of the rest of America that does not share the absolutists’ concern gets an immediate threat to pull their GOP support and stay home.

Perception:

Illegal Immigration proponents come across as impatient, demanding, and racist. I am sorry but when all the talk is about the Hispanic South not the Liberal White North, people automatically question any claim of concern by the absolutes for National Security.

Pro-lifers have one huge perception advantage: they can be painted as against women’s rights but for the life of an innocent baby. The latter does not fly in the face of their Christian and moral values.

Making the Move:

After the only poll that really count, politicians ran for cover when it came to the illegal issue. It’s going to be a very long time before they will come out in the same way that the Left has on abortion.

Notice that Liberal politicians will almost proclaim being “pro-choice” as though they were saying they were for “racial equality” or “anti-slavery”…like it’s a done deal in public opinion. This is because the MSM has done a great job in selling the “woman’s right” angle.

The RINO press has failed miserably in doing the same not just for the Pro-life issue but for the border situation. For more than a quarter of a century, they’ve told their listeners/readers to be patient and to chip away at the edges…accept pro-life lite candidates like Reagan, Bush 1, and Dole. Now they are telling the pro-lifers to accept a pro-abortion supporter while other pro-lifer candidates are available.

The funny thing is that the C/PLrs will probably do it.

Because they have no where else to go and no hope other than the GOP.

Ironically, the SAME RINO press will not accept any “lite” illegal immigration bill or candidate. They will not be patient. They will not accept anything less than all.

And the border issue absolutist WILL stay home even if there have no where else to go.

 Hugh Hewitt said something today that made me want to cry.  After 3 days of ranting about the new illegal immigration bill, he admitted that all the hype was on heresay.

This is a law professor and he's ready to hang the GOP on heresay?  He "thinks" the bill isn't building the kind of fence that was promised last October.  He "thought" there was no penalty for bosses that knowingly hire illegals (now he "thinks" it's 6.5 grand for the first offense up to 75 thousand A PIECE, but he doesn't REALLY know.)

He and the alternate press has whipped their fans to a frenzy over what someone "leaked" to him.  Almost everyone (other than a politician) has told Hugh to wait and see...that the GOP sponser of the bill has the HIGHEST grade among conservatives.

He has even out done Ingraham in his extreme wrath.  He has gone on and on about ramming this bill thru in one week...to the shock of his guests who knows that it is near impossible to get any bill thru Congress in such a short time--something that Hewitt should know well and good.

"This is going to be a blow that the GOP will not recover from--unless they stop this bill right now!" he thundered at one point.  (I'm paraphrasing) "The GOP is STILL not listening to the base!"

I shuddered...shades of telling the WH who to appoint came rushing back.

First--we may not have a King McCain (or Bush) but we DO have an elected official that gets to govern WITHOUT constant approval or permission from the media via public polls.

Second--the nutters have come out again, claiming to be the "base" of the GOP, and saying some truly scary things...One caller on Medved's show wanted to bring back our troops, position them on the Mexican border and "shoot a few" just to make a point.  These nutters are going to paint the Right as racist (yeah it's SOUNDS racist as all get out when you want to "secure" the southern Hispanic border but not the easier to cross northern White border) and alienate Hispanics the same way proposition 187 turned what was once a Red State California (and all those lovely votes) Blue.

Third--wouldn't it be wonderful if the "base" made this much of a fuss when our economy is making record gains or when the Left tries to cut funding of our troops?

Fouth--Instead of getting mad at the minority you caused, can we try to get even with the Dems and McCain and whomever you feel let you down by putting in so many Republicans that it won't matter what the Liberals or McCain does...the Right will have the 2/3 majority to make it happen?

 

I've often wondered why Mitt doesn't seem to quite do it for me--or most people it seems.

The man is strong on the WOT, my number 1 issue.  But there are at least 2 candidates that actually has served and know what War can do to soldiers and their families.

The man is pro-life and religious--only he was pro-abortion when it was politically expedient and how religious can someone be if  he directly supports something his own church condemns (that's like Kennedy and Kerry claiming to be strong Catholics.)

The man is a businessman which I prefer to a lawyer--but while America loves their Reagan/Fred/Hollywood elites...they dislike, distrust, and are basically angry at the (fi!thy) rich Bill Gates types of which Romney--sorry-- appears to be.  Bush's greatest strength (and his greatest weakness) is his ability to connect with the average voter.  Romney can have meaningful conversations with his financial and literate buddies and would probably get along fine with the media, but to every 9 to 5 and sometimes over time worker, Romney represents every hard a$$ boss they"ve ever had.

The man wants to enforce immigration laws--but unlike Hunter, he doesn't seem to be able to sell the issue to the Independents and the core Republicans.

The man was an effective governor and has executive experience--but getting the Dems in Massachusetts to care more about Massachusetts than scoring political points is like Bush gettin the Dems in Texas to care more about Texas...possible on a local level...impossible on a national level.  I'm not sure I want to see more of Bush's "let's work together for the good of the nation" and the Dems coming back with "Bush (Romney) lied..."

Lastly, there is the thing about his religion.  His particular sect doesn't bother me...the fact that he had pro-abortion beliefs prior to deciding to run for president attest to the fact that this man will not allow his mormonism to dictate his political career.

Putting aside one's issues (be it religion, abortion, immigration, or whatever one feels passionate about)  to win the WOT is difficult...fortunately for the voter, the GOP candidates are mostly united on the WOT and need not settle for almost and not quite.

 

First…the absolutes may need to sit down because I am about to admit that …

They are right…the borders are porous and need to be closed.

That is correct. The illegal immigration issue IS important and MUST be resolved.

But not for the reason they continue to harp on.

Oh most people living in the 46 non-border states will give the issue of immigration all kinds of lip service but when it comes to taking the issue to the voting booth, other issues will take precedent precisely because other things directly concerns the average American voter.

Very few Americans will pay $5 for an apple if it can be had for 25 cents any more than most Americans won’t buy a Ford or a Chrysler that won’t last till the end of their 6 year car payments just to keep American car workers in Michigan employed. Americans cut their teeth on capitalism and their instinct is get the most for their money; which is why HP (and every computer company) out sourced the manufacturing of their products and customer service.

This is consumer reality and this is what the illegal immigration issue (with it’s pro-American spin) is up against.

Ok, so how do we “sell” the illegal immigration issue so that it has enough relevance to the other 46 states for them to join in the push to close the borders?

First off, as in selling any product, it is essential to understand the market outside your usual consumer base. In the case of illegal immigration, most people (yes, even in Red states) do not feel the over crowding ERs and public schools have anything to do with their city, their town. Many do not believe that illiterate immigrants are going to take THEIR skilled jobs away, not at 5% unemployment. A large portion of Americans view illegals in almost the same light as homeless, poor people and feel uncomfortable in showing any kind of hatred or disgust toward them.

Thus stories of social services and schools being over loaded and job lost because of illegals have a limited shelf life on the American public’s attention span.

CRIME:

Crime however; is a universal problem and most people living in big cities know first hand about inner city crime. While it may be politically incorrect to speak of getting rid of Americans (especially if they are Blacks) that have every right to live where they want to…there is something almost patriotic about ridding your cities of the drug cartel that is bringing in filth from other nations.

CORRUPTION OF OUR YOUTH:

“Drug dealers” can even galvanize support from those living in smaller towns and suburban areas:

“The Illegal Immigration issue has reached critical status due to the overwhelming number of criminal activities perpetrated by drug and human bondage trading cartels. In sunny California, our once beach loving and skate boarding youth is being corrupted by the exotic and heady lure of “easy” drug money and violent gangs.”

Almost every baby boomer (no matter where they live) remembers the days before the drugged out anti-war Vietnam protesters… when the Beach Boys sung about cars and sunny days riding the surf…and as their parents before them thought the youth of the 60s had gone “bad”…today’s parents (who happen to vote) look at their children and wonder what went wrong.

The sound bite above gives them a possible answer: illegals “corrupting” the youth of America. NOTHING moves Americans like the need to protect their children—and the “human bondage” tag gives the illegal immigration issue a touch of urgency.

ENVIRONMENT:

“Arizona’s open deserts, raw with nature’s challenge have become graveyards of coyote’s lies. “ is enough to get every nature loving and camping enthusiasts up in arms. It is one thing to have to deal with the homeless druggies and drunks on city streets…but to have the dead bodies of simple human beings lured with the promise of making money littered among wild life splendor…!

END GAME:

“It is unfortunate that such people have forced America, a nation of immigrants, to enact stricter enforcement of border control laws, to send back what may well be good, contributing workers, and to go after companies that are just trying to make their own American dream come true…but the numbers of illegals have grown too large (approaching 12 million) to separate the good from the bad…and these criminals have given us little choice.”

The following is not my post.  I am reprinting it here with the permission of the blogger to whom I "borrowed" it from.  This is a reminder to myself  why the WOT needs to be fought on all fronts, including here at home.

From Snoopy's "Capitolism or Socialism...you decide" blog...

Be my voice. I want this message heard. It is mine and my platoon’s to the country. A man I know lost his legs the other night. He is in another company in our batallion. I can no longer be silent after watching the sacrifices made by Iraqis and Americans everyday.Send it to a congressman if you have to. Send it to FOX news if you have to. Let this message be heard please…

My fellow Americans, I have a task for those with the courage and fortitude to take it. I have a message that needs not fall on deaf ears. A vision the blind need to see. I am not a political man nor one with great wisdom. I am just a soldier who finds himself helping rebuild a country that he helped liberate a couple years ago.

I have watched on television how the American public questions why their mothers, fathers, brothers, and sisters are fighting and dying in a country 9000 miles away from their own soil. Take the word of a soldier, for that is all I am, that our cause is a noble one. The reason we are here is one worth fighting for. A cause that has been the most costly and sought after cause in our small span of existence on our little planet. Bought in blood and paid for by those brave enough to give the ultimate sacrifice to obtain it. A right that is given to every man, woman, and child I believe by God. I am talking of freedom.

Freedom. One word but yet countless words could never capture it’s true meaning or power. “For those who have fought for it, freedom has a taste the protected will never know.” I read that once and it couldn’t be more true. It’s not the average American’s fault that he or she is “blind and deaf” to the taste of freedom. Most American’s are born into their God given right so it is all they ever know. I was once one of them. I would even dare to say that it isn’t surprising that they take for granted what they have had all their life. My experiences in the military however opened my eyes to the truth.

Ironically you will find the biggest outcries of opposition to our cause from those who have had no military experience and haven’t had to fight for freedom. I challenge all of those who are daring enough to question such a noble cause to come here for just a month and see it first hand. I have a feeling that many voices would be silenced.

I watched Cindy Sheehan sit on the President’s lawn and say that America isn’t worth dying for. Later she corrected herself and said Iraq isn’t worth dying for. She badmouthed all that her son had fought and died for. I bet he is rolling over in his grave.

Ladies and gentleman I ask you this. What if you lived in a country that wasn’t free? What if someone told you when you could have heat, electricity, and water? What if you had no sewage systems so human waste flowed into the streets? What if someone would kill you for bad-mouthing your government? What if you weren’t allowed to watch TV, connect to the internet, or have cell phones unless under extreme censorship? What if you couldn’t put shoes on your child’s feet?

You need not to have a great understanding of the world but rather common sense to realize that it is our duty as HUMAN BEINGS to free the oppressed. If you lived that way would you not want someone to help you????

The Iraqi’s pour into the streets to wave at us and when we liberated the cities during the war they gathered in the thousands to cheer, hug and kiss us. It was what the soldier’s in WW2 experienced, yet no one questioned their cause!! Saddam was no better than Hitler! He tortured and killed thousands of innocent people. We are heroes over here, yet American’s badmouth our President for having us here.

Every police station here has a dozen or more memorials for officers that were murdered trying to ensure that their people live free. These are husbands, fathers, and sons killed every day. What if it were your country? What would your choice be? Everything we fight for is worth the blood that may be shed. The media never reports the true HEROISM I witness everyday in the Iraqi’s. Yes there are bad one’s here, but I assure you they are a minuscule percent. Yet they are a number big enough to cause worry in this country’s future.

I have watched brave souls give their all and lose thier lives and limbs for this cause. I will no longer stand silent and let the “deaf and blind” be the only voice shouting. Stonewall Jackson once said, “All that I have, all that I am is at the service of the country.” For these brave souls who gave the ultimate sacrifice, including your son Cindy Sheehan, I will shout till I can no longer. These men and women are heroes. Their spirit lives on in their military and they will never be forgotten. They did not die in vain but rather for a cause that is larger than all of us.

My fellow countrymen and women, we are not overseas for our country alone but also another. We are here to spread democracy and freedom to those who KNOW the true taste of it because they fight for it everyday. You can see the desire in their eyes and I am honored to fight alongside them as an Infantryman in the 101st Airborne.

Freedom is not free, but yet it is everyone’s right to have. Ironic isn’t it? That is why we are here. Though you will always have the skeptics, I know that most of our military will agree with this message. Please, at the request of this soldier spread this message to all you know. We are in Operation Iraqi Freedom and that is our goal. It is a cause that I and thousands of others stand ready to pay the ultimate sacrifice for because, Cindy Sheehan, freedom is worth dying for, no matter what country it is! And after the world is free only then can we hope to have peace.

SGT Walter J. Rausch and 1st Platoon
101st Airborne Division (Air Assault)

Sandra Wise wrote in her blog (A Word To The Wise) about the bullies at TH. One particular accusation from one of those bullies (written on his blog) seem to bother most everyone: the idea that they all had “bunker mentalities and agreed with everything each other said.

This got me to thinking of the posters that regularly frequent A Word To The Wise.

They seem to be in 3 distinct groups (and anyone mentioned, feel free to correct me):

1- Peppermint and Sheila believe in a real tangible difference between the Dems and the GOP. They will work toward getting as conservative a candidate as possible in the primary, but in the general, they will close ranks around the GOP candidate.

2- Sandra, Dave, and Jev have a list of issues that they take with them when “shopping” for a candidate to support. Much of the time, they are “checking” and “unchecking” the items on their list, weighing what can be dropped or tolerated.

3- Jim, Wil, and I are absolutist when it comes to WOT. It isn’t the ONLY issue we care about, but it is the issue that trumps everything else including party lines and pet concerns.

Now, what does these 3 groups have in common?

All of them believe in winning. In fact the concept of losing now to win later is foreign…but not unfamiliar.

In fact it is the mantra of the Left.

And one the absolutes, the bullies at TH have been chanting for quite some time.

As Sheila likes to say…”case close”.

 

Some have asked how I came up with the odds. I thought I’d take a moment to explain my method because the numbers have changed and it will cut some of the time if I dealt with the how in the beginning of this article.

The odds are NOT based on my feelings toward any particular candidate. I have taken the major groups that would be voting in the primary and the general and made my determination based on how I believe these groups would vote.

In the primary, there are three groups.

1-The hard right: absolutes, purist, 3^rd party wannabes. Their major issues are illegal immigration, gun control, and government spending.

They make up 3% of the GOP vote maximum but very vocal and intimidating.

2-The Christian and Pro-lifers: Their major issues are the courts: gay marriage, abortion, defense of Christian worship.

They can make up anywhere from 22% to perhaps 40% of the vote because this includes Independents that may not normally vote “conservative”, but has been voting GOP since Roe vs. Wade.

3-The Base. Now there’s been a lot of claim to this title by the absolutes but the base of the GOP are busy working people who thinks it’s ok to close the borders but is not fanatical about it…who think they pay too much taxes but kind of like the Social Security and other social programs that help care for their elderly parents and relatives down on their luck…who only hate government interference when they want to build an extension to their house and has to get all those building permits.

They aren’t the absolutists or purist…they’re not even the reasonable conservatives like Sandra, Sheila, Jev, Dave, or wil. Most who will vote Republican have little interest in politics, knows who got eliminated on American Idol but not who the speaker of the House is.

They care if their gas goes up, if Joe can marry Mike, and if our troops don’t get the gear they need to kick butt.

They are not stupid—just extremely busy making a buck and trying to find time to shuffle kids to their sports and weekend activities and to attend their place of worship.

This group makes up another 15%.

In the general, I add the following:

4- Christian Democrats who will vote for a pro-life/pro-marriage candidate even if he/she is a Republican. I’d say they add another 5% and they just loved the absolutist telling them that there is no difference between the GOP and the Dems so they could stick to their Liberal principles when they vote.

5- Independents who lean Left on some issues, Right on others. Because they rarely feel strongly about any one issue, this group, the largest at 55% to 60% of the voters (with the Independents already voting GOP) cannot be counted on and must be courted.

Independents are NOT the same as moderates. They don’t accept lukewarm version of the hard Left or hard Right issues. They can care deeply and passionately about one or two issues; they just do not follow ALL the mantra of the Left or the Right.

**

Now for the changes:

McCain:

As some of you may know, I’ve been having a long run in with my British Tory partner about McCain’s electability. I just couldn’t see who in the primary would vote for McCain.

Now let me make myself perfectly clear. I do not like McCain. I think his sour grapes and his lack of support for the president shows his true character. I hope I don’t have to choose between him and Queen Hill.

But to answer my own question of who would vote for him, after today’s speech, I would have to say two groups…the Christian/Pro-lifers and the base. From their point of view…McCain is an ex-vet, pro-lifer, who just gave an upbeat Reagan type speech with all the humility of a born again Bush. What’s there not to like?

IF he makes it to the general, he’ll find the Independents who will remember that the man kept the Senate from shutting down the courts (unlike Newt) and got SOME of the pie instead of none.

New odds: 49% (primary), 57% (general)

Romney:

I think Romney’s star has started to fall. The man is about as exciting as wet cardboard and while the darling of the RINO press; he seems to be a compromise candidate…one people “can” vote for only because there isn’t anyone else.

I believe that all the groups above will soon look elsewhere because they want someone that will fire them up—and Romney is not it.

New odds: 42% (primary), 35% (general).

Hunter:

Ok, this is going to be totally unfair but I think it has great possibilities. I am upping Hunter’s chances a full 10 points in the primary because he demanded Reid’s resignation. I think it showed ba11s and yet, it didn’t offend the average guy precisely because the Dems have demanded the same to so many other people.

Besides…be honest, how many people on the Right smiled upon hearing Hunter say that?

New odds: 51% (primary), 60% (general)

 

I wrote the first run down on the top candidates for the GOP ticket back in January. Here is an update:

McCain

Odds: (primary) 42% (general) 51%

Positive:

Seen by many to be moderate which means he will appeal to Independents and those who lean toward the Right.

Pro-life and pro-military enough to appeal to Christians and moderate conservatives.

Has many supporters on both sides of the aisle…shown ability to work with all camps. All groups will see him as the “lesser of two evils” and an alternative to the extreme candidates.

Negative:

In 2000, McCain got burnt badly by the GOP and other conservative groups that choose Bush to run on the national ticket. Since then, he has actively courted the Democrats. There are many in the Republican camp that dislike him and will find it difficult to support him.

No charisma. Many who has met the man has been quoted as saying that while Bush may lack the charm of Reagan and Clinton, up close and personal, he is someone that seems sincere and very likeable. McCain on the other hand has been described as standoffish and bitter. He is known to be unforgiving and takes criticism badly.

**

Prediction:

McCain has too much ground to make up with his own party…IF he wins the primary…McCain has a slightly better than average chance to take the White House from those who truly dislike Hillary, find Obama a joke, and is scared sh*tless of a President Nancy.

=UPDATE:

My British business partner and I have had a running disagreement on the viability of McCain’s campaign. I still think the man has angered too many people to win the primary, BUT his recent comeback to a reporter asking him for “an apology” to “Get a life” is what many people sick of Bush’s turn the other cheek will find appealing. I thought he lost 10% in the odds because of his lack of ability to raise money, but the next fund raiser (if he keeps this up) may find him catching up. I think he might have lost a bit with the Independents, who like winners, again we’ll have to see how his next raising funds do.

The final odds of today: (primary) 40%, (general) 50%

Guilliani

Odds: 32% (primary) 61% (general)

Positive:

“America’s Mayor” was tough on New York’s crime, the terrorists, and unapologetic toward the politically correct. He appeals to anyone that didn’t like the feeling of losing a war.

He is down home enough to win over the average working joe/jane but forceful enough to make the elites give him a wide berth.

Cops, firemen, troops like his masculine demeanor. Guilliani is a “man’s man”.

Negative:

A HUGE one…Guilliani is socially liberal. With the president having the ability to appoint judges…pro-lifers and marriage defining supporters will block any attempt to win the primary.

Nationally, Guilliani is untested. It is one thing to send N.Y. cops in to clean up American streets quite another to send troops to a foreign country where you have to deal with other cultures and their different court systems.

Americans may have adored Guilliani refusal of blood money from the Saudi prince, but such diplomatic faux pas would give new meaning to the phrase “American Trash”.

Prediction:

Guilliani has almost zero chance to win the GOP ticket. Not only will he be up against the traditionalist who are socially conservative…absolutists detest his pro-illegal immigration and gun control stand. He has too many fractions under the GOP tent to win a place on the ticket. BUT if he does win, he will appeal to enough groups on the Right, Left, and the all important Middle to win.

=UPDATE:

There was a period that Rudy was looking like the front runner. But that all got trashed when the Supreme Court handed the pro-abortionist it’s biggest lost in 3 decades. Now pro-lifers and Christians are remembering why they voted for Bush and a GOP Congress to begin with.

And don’t underestimate this block of voters. It is widely held that the stunt the Dems pulled (leaking the story of Bush’s drinking before he “found” Christ) almost tanked Bush’s candidacy. It took a lot of reminding from the pulpit to get this block of voters out on election day.

It is also why Queen Hill found religion after the 2004 elections.

Today’s odds: (Primary) 20%, (General) 47%

Romney

Odds: 51% (primary) 49% (general)

Positive:

A favorite of many Republicans, Romney has just enough conservative views to satisfy most of the fractions under the GOP tent. On all the key issues, he hits the right notes and manages to do so without sounding harsh or extreme.

Relatively free of private scandals and bad personal behavior, he will appeal to church going Middle America.

Being the son of an ex-governor and an alumni of both Stanford and Harvard, Romney has enough elite credentials to satisfy the ex-lawyer talk show host and Pulitzer prize winning columnists.

Negative:

Two large liabilities or two on each side of the same coin. Many voters find leaders who place religion as an important part of their lives “scary”. And while this was countermanded in Bush by the Christians who shared his religion…Romney belongs to “one of those” religious sects…”MORMON”.

Some Christians…most prominently born-again Evangelical Christians do not consider Mormons “Christians” at all and would support a conventional Christian claimant (even if she is a non-practicing one) before voting for one that may bring some of “those” beliefs into their White House decisions.

Prediction:

I am factoring his “Mormonism” into this prediction. Most Christians on the Right will weigh his conservative views against his religion and accept him as they had Catholic JFK. It is only the Evangelical groups that may prefer someone who follows the “right” religion even if she put in a judge that would find the right to marriage for gays in the constitution.

Romney’s electability rating drops in the general because of the sectarian group that fears all religions.

Note: I did not put his “adaptability” to issues in either the positive or negative column as I’m not sure if this flexibility is a plus or minus. It does show a serious ability to win, which is needed, but also hints at the possibility that his views can be altered by polls.

Thus, it is my belief this is the one candidate that may get in—just under the radar—while the others are busy fighting turf wars.

He is also the closest in temperament to Bush and if he does win-- I fear another 8 years of bashing—from the MSM who will accuse him of everything to the RINO press who will forgive him nothing.

=UPDATE

My greatest fear regarding Romney is the apparent anointing of the RINO press. Is he a man that will be ruled by them via the polls?

In any event, he has managed to do the impossible…soothe all the fractions on the Right, which is what is needed, so I am going to up his numbers in the primary (62%) but not the general (49%) as Romney fails to inspire.

Gingrich

Odds: 35% (primary), 33% (general)

Positive:

The darling of the absolutists…Gingrich is credited with not only espousing their ideals; but being one of the forefathers of its conception.

Every hard line Conservative stand, Gingrich supports and he promises a return to the days of the “contract with America”, the glory days when Congress was held in a stalemate over issues, and wearing down the tip of the almighty “veto” pen.

Negative:

What Gingrich doesn’t remind you and most of his supporters would rather forget is that those “glory days” of fighting a Democratic President resulted in Gingrich LOSING and playboy Clinton being forever more considered a political genus.

Gingrich also fails in the moral character category having “enjoyed” after hours “comforting” from his secretary while his wife lay serious ill in the hospital. This error in marital fidelity will NOT endear him, to not just the Christians but to the 50% of the population that is female…many of which are wives and mothers.

Prediction:

Gingrich will get slaughtered by the media…the Left because his personal baggage make him such an easy target…and the Right because they are sitting too high on their sanctimonious perch NOT to at least sound offended. The RINO press cannot preach that Gingrich’s personal life is private after years of bashing Clinton’s lack of moral character.

Politically, Gingrich made a serious miscalculation when he tried to shut down the government…and ten years later, he STILL does not comprehend that not ALL Americans are Conservatives and agree with his vision of the world. Gingrich may fire up the choir on the Right…but the rest of America finds his narrow ideals about as interesting as a Saturday afternoon t.v. sermon.

=UPDATE

I think Gingrich is smart enough to realize that his appeal lay in his “what if”. If he should run; his following would learn that his no compromise, no tolerance would not work any better than it did 10 years ago.

To keep his mystique and the money it generates in appearance, books, and speeches, Gingrich won’t run.

Odds if he did: 20% (primary), 22% (general)

Brownback

Odds: 20% (primary), 62% (general)

Positive:

Full of charisma, Brownback has been exciting the national voters for quite some time. He has the JFK good looks, the Reagan smoothness, the Bush sincerity, and the Tony Blair rhetorical skills.

The absolutist love his strong, feisty personality. The RINO press will find his eloquent speech acceptable. His conservative family values will satisfy the religious groups while his non-preachy style won’t alarm the sectarian.

He has enough time in Congress to have earned some measure of respect from both his colleagues and the MSM.

His past is relatively light in scandals, especially since Clinton, Gingrich, and Foley took Washington scandals to a new level.

Negative:

The 2006 lost of a Republican Congress truly shook Brownback. He has gone from thunderous (but sane) conservatism to a strict moderate road. He refuses to issue an opinion on anything but the most agreed upon issues…like finding a cure for cancer and better educating our children.

His reaction to the lost of Congress is another indication of my belief that the illegal immigration issue is a losing ticket. If Hillary, the most mercenary of politicians can soften her tone on abortion after the 2004 election, why isn’t she right there insisting on tough anti-illegal enforcement…or why has Brownback refused to touch that subject with a ten-foot poll?

Prediction:

Brownback has no monetary backing to launch and maintain a presidential campaign. To gain that, he has to take a bold stand on the issues…if he jumps wrong; he will lose any possibility of raising funds.

If by some miracle, he does win the primary, he stands a great chance of winning the general because of the first “positive” I listed.

=UPDATE

Brownback has come back on track…strong on core issues but he has lost momentum. I’m not sure he can gain it back, but I’ve altered his chances to win the primary and the general.

Odds: 30% (primary), 60% (general).

Rice

Odds: 75% (primary)* 68% (general)*

Positive:

Black—will get the minority vote (not just Blacks).

Female—will get the women vote (or those who would like to see a female in the top office.

Highly educated, intelligent, artistic—her degrees which includes a doctrine, her Stanford tenure, and her figure skating, ballet, and concert piano accomplishments will satisfy the most snobbish voter.

Impeccable Christian background—father was a pastor during the civil rights and many of the Christian community think of her as their “own.”

National / International figure—As Secretary of State, she doesn’t suffer from lack of name recognition.

Negative:

Seen as a Bush “lacky” and some will fear a continuation of the Bush legacy.

Moderate on some issues—such as Israel, but may be due to her diplomatic role.

Is “hands on” in the administration of her department—some see this as “micromanaging”.

But the real NEGATIVE to a Rice presidency is that she WILL NOT RUN.

Prediction:

The asterisk above is to note that the numbers are only if Rice ran. After watching up front and personal what the “base” and the RINO press has done to her mentor…the only way that she will become president is if the GOP “drafts” her. To do that, the RINO press will have to be neutralized (see my article on the Brilliance of Karl Rove for possible method of accomplishing that.)

Bush 3 (as in Jeb)

Odds: 67% (primary)* 52% (general)*

Positive:

Jeb is a lot less “nice” than his brother. He won’t turn that Christian “other cheek” for the media on both sides to bash.

Jeb has proven to be an effective leader in Florida and his diplomatic and communication skills are polished.

He’s in line with most of America…Right of center with strong leanings toward the Right socially and fiscally.

Negative:

ANOTHER BUSH would drive the liberals NUTS…but the RINO press would also want to justify their Bush bashing by finding fault with this 3^rd Bush. It would be more ugliness in politics.

As in Rice…this Bush WILL NOT RUN. He’s seen how the press and the RINO media in particularly, treats Bush(s) and he will not subject himself or his family to that abuse.

Prediction:

Most voting GOPs like Jeb. He has all the polish that his father and brother lacks—and he’s a lot tougher.

But again, as with Rice, the asterisk above is to note what would happen if by some miracle, Jeb got on the GOP ticket.

ADDITIONS:

HUNTER

Odds: 41% (primary), 59% (general)

Positive:

Strongly pro-life, fiscally responsible, pro-military, and pro-controlling the borders, Hunter will unite most of those on the Right.

He appears to solidly loyal to friends and issues, something that will appeal to the Independents. And his rhetoric isn’t extreme or lacking of intolerance, a big plus in gaining the moderate vote.

He has relatively little controversy or skeletons in his closet and one big ace: he is an ex-vet and his son is an ex-marine that has been on two tours in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Negative:

He is a relative unknown and lacks the financial power backing of the top three contenders.

Prediction:

If he makes it pass the primary, the GOP will back him and I believe that once the rest of America hears about him, he just might beat Queen Hill or Obama.

THOMPSON

Odds: 35% (primary), 51% (general)

Positive:

Thompson reminds many people of Reagan because he’s also an actor. Like Reagan, he’s also been divorced and remarried. And also like Reagan, he has a great voice and knows how to deliver well written lines.

Negative:

I’m not quite sure what he stands for or what he’s done to lead anyone to believe that he would make a great president. I know he endorsed McCain over Bush in the pre-2000 primary and that he went after Clinton’s impeachment but was ineffectual in getting the goods against Clinton. He also “appears” to being a Christian but I have no idea where he stands on the issues.

His eight years in Congress did not present him to be a strong social conservative, yet he is rated high by conservative groups—why?

He also has cancer which is bad thing to try to combat in the best of circumstances—the stress of the oval office, the hostile MSM and its alternate press will kill him.

Prediction:

If he should win the primary, he may take the general for the same reason. Star power. He is the man from “Law and Order” who wanted to give no leeway to the criminal.

Ah, but could his supporters remember that “Law and Order” was the series that was pro-abortion and consistently took pot shots at Bush and the GOP?

I wrote this early my morning...

The First Real Pro-Life Pres in 35 years just got the partial birth abortion bill upheld!

Alito who took over swing vote Sandra Day O'Conner's seat brought sanity back to the courts by upholding the constitutionality of banning this barbaric practice.

A little background here folks...the method was created because too many babies were being born alive. The abortionist had to make sure that the babies died in the womb, so created the procedure that crushed the head of the baby and sucked out the brain BEFORE the baby left the mother's body.

When the RINO press went off because Bush didn't pick someone on THEIR wish list, Bush and Miers COULD have "taught them a lesson" and gave them exactly what they wanted. The "nuclear" option would have been used (which doesn't seem so bright now that the GOP doesn't have the majority huh?).

But Bush and company really WAS pro-life and really DID want to keep their word to their pro-life and Christian supporters and put in someone pro-life but not radioactive.

Now let's see how "conservative" the Bush Bashers are...will they give credit where credit is due?

**

I came back  on line this afternoon to a post that lectured about the importance of "principles" and voting for real conservatives and an other poster who agreed with him..

NOTHING was said about the man in the White House who knows the meaning of principles.  He is the first politician to give Christians and pro-lifers more than lip service.  Principles are something that you keep even when it's not easy or popular. 

I am hugely disappointed  but not surprised.  I have long suspected that the two issues that most unite those on the Right...WOT and Abortion did not concern them.  They may be the most vocal but they are NOT the base of Conservatives...

And it is good, now perhaps the base WILL see that these people put their pride above what's good for this nation and finally cut them loose.

I do know one thing...today's ruling just gave the GOP the pro-life and Christian vote--now THAT'S a voting block that DID help the GOP win Congress and the WH--and may do so again in 2008.

 

Let us imagine for one brief moment that in early 2008, the Dems finally pulled the funding on the troops. A million or more purple fingers get slaughtered. An embolden Iran terrorist group Fed Ex equipment for a dirty bomb. L.A., Chicago, or Vegas (den of sin-lol) is turned to rubble.

What would happen?

1- The Left would be silent.

2- The Absolutes would put their issue on the back burner.

3- The RINO and MSM press would find their patriotism.

4- Hollywood would hold fundraisers.

5- There would be no party politics, no racial division. We’d all be “Americans.”

6- Everyone would stand behind the president, who could then go after the terrorists.

7-The best and the brightest (aka Condi) might be persuaded to run against Queen Hil.

8-Months would go by…but the first RINO press (aka Ingraham and the NRO) who attacks Bush and the GOP would kiss their ratings goodbye.

9-President Rice or another strong GOP (instead of sloppy seconds) will appoint a non-judiciary activist to the SCOTUS—and some of the damage done by the Liberals for the past 4 decades will be repaired.

10-The GOP will regain Congress with Republicans that aren’t afraid to be conservative…maybe we’ll get the wall, enforcement of laws….SOMETHING workable that won’t tank our economy.

11-The RINO press will move toward a more responsible position so that when the Bash Bush stint ends, they’ll actually have something to talk about.

Nice aftermath huh?

Too bad, an American city has to be destroyed and thousands die before people get their priorities straight.

We may not be able to make people do most of the above without “death and destruction”, but we can make it very expensive for them not to at least try.

Start with holding absolutes and the press to task.

Make them declare their priorities—if the war is not on their list, then you need to question their affiliation.

Then treat them as you would if they said the things they have AFTER L.A. was destroyed.

Because if you do not do it now, there WILL be every reason to do so later.

The following was a comment I made on Dave's blog "A Conservative in Cincinnati".

Running the ball

Liberals had been doing it for 8 years during the Clinton era. The elites on the Right were frustrated as all get out.

When the Right got into power ala Bush, the RINO elites thought it was THEIR turn. Only it was the Liberal's game and they continued to make the rules.

The best way to win is to handle Liberals (and 3rd party wannabes) the same way you handle teenagers.

Feign boredom and tell them to grow up.

Seriously Dave, don't you realize that it is YOUR side that feeds the PC mode and gives them power? It began with Trent Lott when a man making a birthday toast got taken down not by the Liberals but by his own people.

The great weakness of Conservatives is they care more about appearances than loyalty. Think about it.

And that is the truth of it.

The Conservatives may have logic on their side...intelligence...responsibility...they may be the more grown up of the two political groups.

But Liberals unite...like the UNITED States, like Unions, like Family and Community.  THAT is their appeal.

Liberals are like those popular kids in school, making all the rules on what's popular and acceptable.

Conservatives are still nerds, apologizing and dancing to the tune of what's supposed to be cool.

It is why, despite 6 years of a great economy, a return to our lives (no attacks on American soil), and a decade where Conservatives held most of the power, Libs continue to run the ball.

And why they will take back the White House, stack the aging Courts, and why we will lose the war and be attacked again.

Because Conservatives care more about what the Liberals think of them than being reasonable, responsible, and boringly grown up.

 

I used to listen to Dr. Laura on the way home from work. I found her hugely entertaining because she was rude and yet her listeners kept coming back for more. Yet for all her caustic riposte, there were times she came up with some insightful bits of wisdom.

One caller spent what little time impatient Dr. Laura gave her complaining about her father. The talk show psychiatrist told the woman she was like someone who had bought a Labrador but really wanted a German Shepherd; no matter how hard the dog tried or how much she wished for a German Shepherd, the dog was going to act exactly like who he was: a Lab.

This is what people who complain about Bush remind me of. No matter how hard Bush tries, or how much you may want him to be Ronald Reagan, he is and always will be George W. Bush.

We knew in 2000 and in 2004 that he didn’t have Reagan’s Hollywood glamour, Clinton’s suave charisma, or Jimmy Carter’s elite degrees. We knew he was a plain spoken man that appealed to the average voter…the ones that lived in the heartland and small towns on both coasts. We knew that he liked working with instead of lording over Congress. His position on illegal immigration was as well known as his unfailing pro-life stand.

We also knew that he was a man of his word. That he surrounded himself with the best and brightest even if they made him look less than brilliant. We knew he was fiercely loyal and friendship meant everything to him. We also knew he took his Christianity seriously and while he may try to turn the other cheek, he would stand his ground until he11 froze if need be.

By 2004, we knew everything there was to know about Bush and still we put him back into office.

We re-bought the Lab…and now we’re screaming that he’s not a German Shepherd?

No Dave, I don’t like everything that Bush does but the things that seem to bother Conservatives don’t upset me.

I KNOW the lost of 10% of our work force will tank our economy, so while I’d like to see the immigration laws enforced, I really wouldn’t like to see a repeat of the ghost towns of post 9/11.

I KNOW that America is in real danger of losing her financial superiority—if she cannot compete on the international scale, she will also her military dominance. That means she HAS to maintain her competitive edge; something impossible with high union wages squeezing her on one end and high taxes and regulations from the other.

I KNOW that the vitriolic talk about the Southern NOT the easier to cross Northern border makes the GOP look racist –and this will cost Conservatives Congress, the White House, and the Courts for generations, while the Hispanics join the Blacks in voting Democrat.

I KNOW that “pork” funds political campaigns and as long as there is no term limits, no one is going to get rid of that no matter how much he says he wants to.

I KNOW that we are at war and in time of war, government cannot be expected to shrink—and you may not appreciate smaller government if your spouse’s/brother/daughter’s position is one of the jobs that gets cut.

When I first became politically aware, I thought that Liberals reminded me of rebellious teenagers who made all kinds of impossible demands without ever considering the cost.

Now, I don’t think it applies only to Liberals…the absolutes, real RINOs, 3^rd party wannabes are like adult children who STILL look to Daddy (Bush) to solve all their problems. That’s why they’re so angry at him.

And why I’m not.

I stopped expecting Daddy to take care of everything and make it all right—a long time ago.

He wrote:

“Sanity, you speak with true sanity, but I'm left puzzled. You claim to be a non-ideologue, yet your views are so truly conservative. More loyal to the GOP than many members, more loyal to the President than many Conservatives. Where do you vent your criticisms of the Administration, I have no doubt you've got some?”

Someone once called me a pragmatist and I think that’s about sums up my philosophy. Almost everything I do is driven by “the bottom line”—and I don’t necessarily mean monetarily.

I don’t take on fights I cannot win. I believe in choosing—carefully--the hill I am willing to die on.

I don’t expend energy and the most precious resource I have—time--on idealistic dreams that have less than 50% chance of succeeding.

Above all, I believe that the more information you absorb, the better chance you have of attaining your goals—of winning. Thus I work toward seeing as much of the big picture as I can.

Ask any chess master…it is the move he never considered that forces a “mate”.

So to answer your question, I rarely criticize Bush and his administration.

As far as I can tell, the only ones who benefit from doing that is the Liberals.

And frankly they don’t need any more help.